China+and+America：The+odd+couple.doc

中国和美国：奇怪的一对China and America：The odd coupleIT HAS become a tedious tradition for Westerners dealing with China to garnish their speeches with wisdom from the Chinese classics. Barack Obama, addressing Chinese and American leaders in July, used not just a banal quotation from Mencius, a Confucian sage, but a punchier one from Yao Ming, a Chinese basketball player: “No matter whether you are new or an old team member, you need time to adjust to one another.” Though it is 30 years since the two countries re-established diplomatic ties severed by the Communist takeover, both sides still badly need to adjust.引用中国经典中的至理名言润色言论现已成为与中国打交道的西方人的一个单调乏味的惯例。贝拉克·奥巴马在今年7月中美领导人会面的演说中，不单引用了儒家圣人孟子的陈词滥调，而且还引用了中国篮球运动员姚明清晰有力的话：“不管是球队的新球员还是老球员，都需要时间来互相适应。”尽管两国重新建立了曾因共产主义者接管（中国）而断绝的外交关系已有三十年了，但双方仍非常需要改变来适应。The heart of the problem is a profound uncertainty in both countries about where the relationship may lead. In many respects the two countries are in the same bed. Their economies have become interlocked, especially in the past decade. America is the worlds biggest debtor and China its biggest creditor. From climate change to the economic recovery, the world faces problems that demand China and America work in concert.问题的实质是两国的关系何去何从有巨大的不确定性。在许多方面，两国都在同一张床上。它们的经济已经连结在一起，特别是过去十年。美国是世界上最大的债务国，而中国是美国的最大债权人。世界面临的问题，从气候变化到经济复苏，都需要中美两国协调努力。Prussian blues, Chinese reds普鲁士蓝，中国红Yet relations are dogged by fears of a new cold war, or even a hot one, breaking out. Some Americans in Washington, DC, talk of China as “the new Prussia”. China has engaged in a rapid military build-up that could challenge America as the defender of Asian peace (and Taiwans sovereignty). Unannounced, China is building its first aircraft-carrier, yet its generals often refuse even to talk to their American peers.然而，对可能发生新的冷战，甚至爆发热战的担忧纠缠着两国的关系。在华盛顿特区的部分美国人口中，中国是“新普鲁士”。中国忙于迅速增强可能挑战亚洲和平（和台湾的主权）的守护者美国的军事力量。未经宣布，中国就在建造第一艘航空母舰，但中国的将领甚至常常拒绝与他们的美国同行说话。Underlying the strategic competition is Chinas economic rise. Its companies are “colonising” swathes of Africa and Latin America, cosying up to regimes Westerners shun. Its huge foreign-exchange holdings and its sniffing of bargains mean Chinese investment in the West will grow rapidly in the coming years. And to cap it all, China owns $800 billion of American government debtenough to give it power of life and death over the American economy.中国经济的崛起成为这种战略性竞争的基础。中国公司正在非洲和拉丁美洲“开拓大片殖民地”，亲近西方人回避的政权。中国庞大的外汇储备及其对讨价还价嗤之以鼻意味着中国在西方的投资在未来几年内将迅速增加。更有甚者的是，中国拥有八千亿美元的美国政府债务足以掌握美国经济的生杀大权。Tensions will get worse in the next few years for two reasons. The first is unavoidable: 2012 witnesses important political transitions in the form of elections in Taiwan and America and a Communist Party Congress in China. Secondand more generallythere has been a recalibration of perceived power. There is now talk of a G2 of China and America, implying that their global weights are nearly equal. In fact, as our special report argues, this is a misperception, and a dangerous one.有两个原因使紧张关系在未来几年可能进一步恶化。第一个是不可避免的：2012年是一个重要的年份，台湾和美国的选举以及中国共产党代表大会都将发生政治轮替。第二个理由也更普遍综合国力已经重新校正。现在谈论的由中国和美国组成的G2，暗示两国有几乎相等的全球影响力。事实上，正如我们的特别报告所证明，这是一种错觉，而且是一种危险的错觉。Chinas economy is still less than a third the size of Americas at market exchange-rates. Its GDP per head is one-fourteenth that of America. The innovation gap between the two countries remains huge. Americas defence budget is still six times Chinas. As for the Treasury bills, dumping them is not an option for China: a tumbling dollar would hurt its own economy (see article). And as American consumers spend less, while Chinese stimulus boosts its domestic spending, the huge and politically troublesome trade imbalances are shrinking. In the meantime, the danger of overegging Chinas economic expansion abroad is that it will fuel protectionism at a time when American unemployment is painfully high.以市场汇率计，中国经济规模仍然不到美国的三分之一。其人均GDP是美国的十四分之一。两国之间的创新仍然存在巨大的差距。美国的国防预算依旧是中国的六倍。至于抛售美国国库券，这不是中国的选项：美元贬值将伤害中国自已的经济（参见论文）。虽然美国消费者花钱少了，但中国的刺激措施却推动中国国内消费，所以，巨大的并且在政治上惹麻烦的贸易不平衡正在缩小。与此同时，就在美国失业率高得讨厌的时候，中国经济把太多的蛋放在对外扩张的篮里的危险是，为贸易保护主义加油。In terms of geopolitical power, China has neither the clout nor the inclination to challenge America. Confidently though Chinas leaders now strut the world stage, they remain preoccupied by simmering discontent at home: there are tens of thousands of protests each year. For all the economic progress, all sorts of tensionssocial, cultural, demographic, even religioushaunt the regime and help explain why it resorts to nationalism so often. So it is odd, and wrong, that Americas approach towards China is driven by its own insecurities.就地缘政治势力而言，中国既没有影响力，也没有挑战美国的倾向。确信地，虽然中国领导人现在在世界舞台上高视阔步，但国内慢慢形成将要爆发的不满还是盘踞在他们的心头：每年都有数以万计的抗议活动。虽然经济发展，但各种各样的紧张对立社会、文化、人口、甚至宗教长期不断地缠绕着这个政权，这些矛盾也有助于解释它为什么如此频繁地诉诸民族主义。因此，美国对华态度受其自身的不安全感驱使是奇怪的并且是错误的。To simplify enormously, the danger is that a frightened United States will be too tough on China over the economy, especially trade; and not tough enough on human rights. On money matters, Mr Obamas foolish decision to slap tariffs on Chinese tyres has given dangerous encouragement to protectionists in America. As unemployment there climbs inexorably towards 10%, the pressure will grow for Congress to fuel a self-defeating attack on Chinese exports and the undervalued yuan. This is bad economics: both China and America would lose enormously from a trade war.大大简化的话，危险在于担惊受怕的美国将会在经济方面，尤其是贸易上对中国过分强硬；而在人权问题上不够严厉。在财政问题上，奥巴马先生对中国轮胎任意征收关税的愚蠢决定已经给予美国保护主义者危险的鼓励。当失业率无情地攀升到10时，对国会的压力就会增强，从而激发一场对中国出口和人民币低估的弄巧成拙的抨击。这在经济上并不划算：中美两国在一场贸易战中都将损失惨重。If economic freedom is one American value that Mr Obama should not sacrifice on his first visit to China next month, the other is personal freedom. Chinese authoritarianism is not somehow more acceptable because China is a rising power; nor are human rights bargaining chips to be played only when expedient. That Mr Obama needs Chinese help to fix the global economy and on climate-change mitigation does not mean the leader of the free world should stifle criticism of its political system. Avoiding a meeting with the Dalai Lama in Washington this month was an unnecessary sop to his hosts. The Communist Party, keen to bolster its image at home, wants the trip to appear successful as much as Mr Obama does.如果经济自由是奥巴马先生不应该在他下个月首次访华时牺牲的一个美国价值，那么，另一个美国价值就是个人自由。中国的威权主义并不因为中国是一个崛起中的大国而不知怎的更值得接受；人权谈判筹码也不只是受到摆布的权宜之计。奥巴马先生需要中国帮助解决全球经济问题并减缓气候变化并不意味着自由世界的领袖应该压制对其政治制度的批评。这个月在华盛顿避而不见达赖喇嘛来讨好东道主是不必要的。共产党渴望改善其在国内的形象，和奥巴马差不多一样希望奥巴马此行显得成功。Same bed, different dreamsand one is stronger同床异梦而一个更强A more confident approach is a bet on whose sort of system of government will prove ultimately stronger. At the moment Chinas responses on the climate, the financial crisis and the emerging swine-flu pandemic have won it praise internationally. But they have also borne the hallmarks of an authoritarian system. For instance, on greenery, it is clear that if China had exposed its response to the rigours of democratic debate, it would have acted more slowly: Chinas system enables it to mobilise huge resources and make politically difficult decisions. But an effective long-term response to climate change needs public understanding of the issues and a legal environment that allows foreign owners of green technologies to transfer them without fear of theft. China lacks both.一个更自信的方法是打赌，那一种政制最终将证明是更强大的。目前，中国对气候问题、金融危机和新出现的猪流感的反应已在国际上赢得了赞誉。但是，它们也带有威权体制的特点。例如，在温室气体方面，显然，如果中国面临过应对严格的民主辩论，它的行动就会比较缓慢：中国的体制使它能够调动巨大的资源，并作出政治上正确的困难决定。但是，长期有效地应对气候变化需要公众对这个问题的了解，还有使转让绿色技术的外国业主不必担心技术被偷窃的法律环境。这两者中国都缺乏。Behind Chinas façade of strength, on stunning display with its parade of tanks and missiles through Beijing on October 1st, lie fretful frailtiesalso on display that day, when spectators were banned for fear of protests. Social tensions in China are likely to rise, even as it grows richer. Locking up activists, as China has been wont to do recently, is not a lasting solution. Mr Obama should meet some of them in Beijing to find out for himself. If his hosts have a hissy fit, let them.10月1日，穿过北京的坦克和导弹方队出色地展示了中国的力量，但烦躁不安的脆弱就处在这强大的外表之下就在展示力量的同一天，由于害怕遭受抗议，政府禁止人们前往现场观看。正当中国社会逐渐富裕起来的时候，紧张局势有可能加剧。就像中国不久前习惯作为的一样，把政治活动积极分子关押起来并非长久之计。奥巴马先生应该在北京自个儿寻找并会见其中部分人。要是他的东道主大发脾气表示反对，就让他们去吧。