课件TheInternationalMonetarySystem国际货币制度.ppt

1,The International Monetary System (國際貨幣制度),Chapter 3,2,The Content of this Chapter,3.1 各種匯率制度 3.2 國際貨幣制度簡史 3.3 歐洲貨幣體系與貨幣聯盟 3.4 新興市場貨幣危機,3,PART I. ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS,I. FIVE MARKET MECHANISMS A. Freely Floating (Clean Float) 自由浮動/乾淨浮動 1. Market forces of supply and demand determine rates. 2. Forces influenced by a. price levels b. interest rates c. economic growth 3. Rates fluctuate over time randomly.,4,ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS,B. Managed Float (Dirty Float) 管理浮動/骯髒浮動 1. Market forces set rates unless excess volatility occurs. 2. Then, central bank determines rate.,5,ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS,C. Target-Zone Arrangement目標區安排 1. Rate Determination a. Market forces constrained to upper and lower range of rates. b. Members to the arrangement adjust their national economic policies to maintain target. 各國調整其國內經濟政策，以維持其匯率在某個大家一致同意的固定中心匯率上下的特定範 圍內。 存在於參加歐洲貨幣制度的主要會員國,6,ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS,D. Fixed Rate System固定匯率制度 1. Rate determination a. Government maintains target rates. b. If rates are threatened, central banks buy/sell currency. c. Monetary policies coordinated. 為了要讓固定匯率制能夠運作，每個會員國都必須接受團體的共同通貨膨脹率當作本身的通貨膨脹率 政府的控制取代了外匯市場的分配功能,7,ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS外幣控制手段,2. Some Government Controls: a. On global portfolio investments. b. Ceilings on direct foreign direct insurance. c. Import restrictions.,8,9,ALTERNATIVE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS,E. Current System現行制度 1. A hybrid system a. Major currencies: use freely-floating method b. Others move in and out of various fixed-rate systems. 主要貨幣以管理浮動為基礎。 其他貨幣則視情況採各種形式的釘住匯率政策,10,PART II. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,I. THE USE OF GOLD A. Desirable properties B. In short run: High production costs limit short-run changes. C. In long run: Commodity money insures stability.,11,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,II. The Classical Gold Standard古典金本位制度 (1821-1914) A. Major currencies on gold standard. 1. Involved commitment by nations to fix the price of domestic currency in terms of a specific amount of gold.,12,古典金本位制度,盛行於1880-1914年。 對於金本位制度的需求，恰好反映了我們對於政府維持法定貨幣的誠意，根本就不信任。 政府必須在發行更多新貨幣前擁有更多的黃金，而獲得額外黃金的成本就等於所欲發行的新貨幣的價值。 貨幣供給的擴張就被所能獲取的黃金數量所限制住。 一國物價水準的騷動，將完全或部分的被國際收支的調節機制所自動抵銷。,13,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,2. Maintenance involved the buying and selling of gold at that price. 3. Disturbances in Price Levels: Would be offset by the price- specie*-flow mechanism. * specie refers to gold coins,14,價格金幣流動機制,圖表 3.7 價格金幣流動機制,15,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,a. Price-specie-flow mechanism had automatic adjustments : 1.) When a balance of payments surplus led to a gold inflow; 2.) Gold inflow led to higher prices which reduced surplus; 3.) Gold outflow led to lower prices and increased surplus.,16,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,III. The Gold Exchange Standard金匯本位 (1925-1931) A. Only U.S. and Britain allowed to hold gold reserves. B. Other countries could hold both gold, dollars or pound reserves.,17,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,C. Currencies devalued in 1931 - led to trade wars. 1931年英鎊貶值，產生以鄰為壑的貶值(beggar-thy-neighbor devaluations) D. Bretton Woods Conference (1944年布列敦森林會議) - called in order to avoid future protectionist and destructive economic policies,18,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,V. The Bretton Woods System (1946-1971) 布列敦森林制度 1. U.S.$ was key currency; valued at $1 - 1/35 oz. of gold. 2. All currencies linked to that price in a fixed rate system.,19,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,3. Exchange rates allowed to fluctuate by 1% above or below initially set rates. B. Collapse, 1971 1. Causes: a. U.S. high inflation rate b. U.S.$ depreciated sharply.,20,布列敦森林制度,19461971年。 各國政府保證維持一固定匯率，或將其貨幣釘住美元或黃金價格。 一盎司的黃金被設定在35美元。 匯率可在其面額上下1%的範圍內自由變動。 優點： 匯率的穩定去除了國際貿易及投資的不確 定感。 促進了所有成員的獲利成長。,21,布列敦森林制度之崩潰,原因： 通貨膨脹又在美國發生了。 一些國家主要為西德、日本、及瑞士拒絕接受對美元固定匯率所帶來的通貨膨脹。 後續發展： 1971年12月史密松寧協定(Smithsonian Agreement) 美元貶值為1/38盎司黃金。 1973年正式走向浮動匯率。,22,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,V. Post-Bretton Woods System (1971-Present) A. Smithsonian Agreement, 1971 US$ devalued to 1/38 oz. of gold. By 1973: World on a freely floating exchange rate system.,23,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,B. OPEC and the Oil Crisis (1973-1974) 1. OPEC raised oil prices four fold; 2. Exchange rate turmoil resulted; 3. Caused OPEC nations to earn large surplus B-O-P. 4. Surpluses recycled to debtor nations which set up debt crisis of 1980s.,24,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,C. Dollar Crisis (1977-78) 1. U.S. B-O-P difficulties 2. Result of inconsistent monetary policy in U.S. 3. Dollar value falls as confidence shrinks. 美國的國際收支困境更形惡化。 卡特政府採行擴張性貨幣政策，而此政策與其他強勢貨幣並不相容。 1979年10月6日改變貨幣政策，穩定貨幣供給，才有所轉變。,25,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,D. The Rising Dollar (1980-85) 1. U.S. inflation subsides as the Fed raises interest rates 2. Rising rates attracts global capital to U.S. 3. Result: Dollar value rises.,26,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,E. The Sinking Dollar:(1985-87) 1. Dollar revaluated slowly downward; 2. Plaza Agreement 廣場協定(1985) G-5 agree to depress US$ further.,27,A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM,3. Louvre Agreement羅浮宮協定(1987) G-7 agree to support the falling US$. F. Recent History (1988-Present) 1. 1988 US$ stabilized 2. Post-1991 Confidence resulted in stronger dollar 3. 1993-1995 Dollar value falls 過去25年來，美金之升貶大體上都可查出是與經濟政策的改變有關,28,PART III. THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM歐洲貨幣體系與聯盟,I. INTRODUCTION A. The European Monetary System (EMS) 1. A target-zone method (1979) 2. Close macroeconomic policy coordination required.,29,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,B. EMS Objective: to provide exchange rate stability to all members by holding exchange rates within specified limits.,30,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,C. European Currency Unit (ECU)歐洲通貨單位 A “cocktail” of European currencies with specified weights as the unit of account. 1. Exchange rate mechanism (ERM)匯率機制 each member determines mutually agreed upon central cross rate for its currency.,31,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,2. Member Pledge: To keep within 15% margin above or below the central rate. D. EMS ups and downs 1. Foreign exchange interventions failed due to lack of support by coordinated monetary policies.,32,歐洲貨幣體系(EMS) 2/2,匯率機制(ERM) 讓EMS的會員來決定它的貨幣相對於中央匯率的價格，但也須相互都同意。 參與國保證將其貨幣都維持在中心交叉匯率的上下15%之內。,33,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,2. Currency Crisis of Sept. 1992 a. System broke down b. Britain and Italy forced to withdraw from EMS. 1992年遭受一連串投機客的攻擊。 G. Failure of the EMS members allowed political priorities to dominate exchange rate policies.,34,1992年的貨幣危機 1/2,原因： 德國致力於物價穩定。 法國因為國內高度的失業率促使其採行擴張的貨幣政策。 投機客攻擊。 1993年7月31日1993年8月1日 歐洲共同體的財政部會首長同意放棄捍衛彼此貨幣。,35,1992年的貨幣危機 2/2,結果檢討： 成功縮小歐洲各國通膨的差異。 固定匯率之維持或目標區之協定，都需總體經濟政策的緊密協調。,36,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,H. Maastricht Treaty馬斯垂克條約 1. Called for Monetary Union by 1999 (moved to 2002). 2. Established a single currency: the euro 3. Calls for creation of a single central EU bank. 4. Adopts tough fiscal standards.,37,馬斯垂克條約,使歐洲共同體變成一貨幣聯盟(monetary union)。 成立一個單一的中央銀行，這銀行是唯一有權力發行歐洲單一貨幣，歐元(euro)的銀行。 歐元：1999.1.1發行 2002.1.1硬幣紙鈔正式流通 創始國：德國、法國、義大利、西班牙、荷蘭、比利時、芬蘭、葡萄牙、奧地利、愛爾蘭、盧森堡等。,38,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,I. Costs / Benefits of A Single Currency A. Benefits 1. Reduces cost of doing business. 2. Reduces exchange rate risk B. Costs 1. Lack of national monetary flexibility.,39,EMU的結果,降低了貨幣轉換的成本及貨幣波動的風險。 更容易來比較各國的物價。 讓歐洲的資本市場、勞動市場、商品市場整合的更好，資源的配置也應該會更有效。 EMU對抗通膨要能成功，只有在ECB被授與獨立性及被任命維護價格穩定的情形下，才有可能。,40,歐元的表現,圖表 3.13 歐元的變動像搭雲霄飛車,41,3.4 新興市場貨幣危機,42,1990年代的新興市場貨幣危機,19941995墨西哥危機 1997亞洲金融危機 1998俄羅斯危機 19981999巴西危機,43,危機的傳染途徑,貿易連結 財金體系 另一項共通點 發行太多短期、連結到美元的債券。,44,新興市場危機的起源 1/2,道德危機： Milton Friedman及Allen Meltzer等經濟學家主張說，對墨西哥的援助反而鼓勵了投資人投更多的錢到亞洲國家，因為他們相信如果真有麻煩了，IMF會伸出援手。,45,新興市場危機的起源 2/2,基本面的政策衝突 三個政策目標 匯率固定 獨立自主的國內貨幣政策 資本可自由移動,46,處理新興市場危機的建議,強制執行貨幣管控 如馬來西亞 允許貨幣可自由移動 如澳大利亞、紐西蘭 永遠把匯率固定住 美元化，建立貨幣委員會，或貨幣聯盟 提供更佳的資訊 多去發掘、宣傳新興市場政策比較正面的資訊及其影響。,