暨南大学《项目管理》chapter 7 managing risk.ppt

管理学院 School of Management,佟瑞 Edward Tong， MPM，MBA,2019/7/1,1,Edward TongCopyright reserved Jinan University,73,Where We Are Now,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,4,What is Risk?,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,5,Definition Of Risk,Risk = f(Likelihood, Impact),Likelihood is the probability of occurrence Impact is the amount at stake,Event,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,6,Risk Defined,Risk is any potential threat or occurrence which may prevent you from achieving your defined business objectives. It may affect timescales, cost, quality, or benefits. All projects are exposed to risk in some form, but the extent of which will vary considerably.,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,7,What is Risk Management?,“Generally accepted” definition. The process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk events during the project SEI version.1 Continuous risk management is a software engineering practice with processes, methods and tools for managing project risks,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,8,The Million Dollar Question,Is risk a bad thing?,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,9,Uncertainty = Risk or Opportunity,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,10,What is an Uncertainty?,It is the sum of unknowns for each project,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,11,Uncertainty, Opportunity, and Risk,Start Project,Completion Outcome (Product),Unknown (Uncertainty),Unfavorable (Risk),Favorable (Opportunity),2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,12,The Real World,Identify,Analyze,Plan,Track,Control,Communicate,PM 508 - Session One,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,13,The Real World,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Risk management,Over and Over and Over Again . . .,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,14,Continuous Risk Management Process,Obtain Sponsorship,Establish Prob/Impact Definitions,Select Risks to Mitigate,Select Mitigation Methods,Create Tracking & Control Plan,Complete Cost/Benefit Analysis,Take Corrective Actions,Adjust Control Plan as Reqd,Close Risks,Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,15,Example of Risk Categories,Plan,Design,Test,Implement,Total Risk,Based on Project Phases -,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,16,Example of Risk Categories,People,Market,Technical,Financial,Total Risk,Tailored to Product Development Project,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,17,Impact Definition Example,Hi Performance, Cost, & Schedule Impacted Medium Cost & Schedule Impacted Low 低 Schedule Impacted,Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,18,Probability Definition Example,Hi More than 70% likely Medium 30-70% likely Low Less than 30% likely,Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,19,Simple Risk Matrix,3,6,9,2,4,6,1,2,3,Low Med Hi,Probability,Impact,Hi Med Low,List of Risks (in Categories),Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,20,3. Major Impact on project schedule or cost. Major impact on benefits. 2. Major impact on project schedule or cost. Minor impact on benefits 1. Minor impact on project schedule or cost. No impact on benefits.,Severity of Impact,Unlikely 15%,Fairly Likely,Very Likely,Almost Certain 85%,Low,Low,HIGH,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Likelihood of Event Happening,Source: Buttrick, R. (1997). The Project Workout. Pitman, UK,More Complex Risk Matrix,Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,21,Another Example Risk Matrix,Risk Management,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,22,Ways to Respond to a Given Risk,Accept Mitigate Avoid,PM 508 - Session Three,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,23,PMP test b,Which technique is used most frequently in risk identification? A. Interviewing B.Brainstorming C.Simulation D. Decision-tree,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,24,PMP test c,Which of the following is NOT an example of external risks?- A. Inflation B.Strike C.Poor staff assignment D.Change of government,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,25,Insurance (etc.),Risk Planning Response Development Tools,Transferring the risk . . .,Examples . . . .,Sharing the risk . . .,2019/7/1,Edward Tong,Jinan University,26,A Quote . . .,He that will not sail till all dangers are over must never put to sea.,Thomas Fuller, 1608 - 1661 Chaplain in extraordinary to Charles II,727,Risk Management Process,Risk Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control. Risk Management A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats that affect the likelihood of a projects success. What can go wrong (risk event). How to minimize the risk events impact (consequences). What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation). What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans).,728,The Risk Event Graph,FIGURE 7.1,729,Risk Managements Benefits,A proactive rather than reactive approach. Reduces surprises and negative consequences. Prepares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks. Provides better control over the future. Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time.,730,The Risk Management Process,FIGURE 7.2,731,Managing Risk,Step 1: Risk Identification Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem identification and risk profiling. Macro risks first, then specific events Step 2: Risk Assessment Scenario analysis for event probability and impact Risk assessment matrix Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Probability analysis Decision trees, NPV, and PERT Semiquantitative scenario analysis,732,The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS),FIGURE 7.3,733,Partial Risk Profile for Product Development Project,FIGURE 7.4,734,Defined Conditions for Impact Scales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives (Examples for negative impacts only),FIGURE 7.5,735,Risk Assessment Form,FIGURE 7.6,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Impact × Probability × Detection = Risk Value,736,Risk Severity Matrix,FIGURE 7.7,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Impact × Probability × Detection = Risk Value,737,Managing Risk (contd),Step 3: Risk Response Development Mitigating Risk Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur. Reducing impact of adverse event. Avoiding Risk Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition. Transferring Risk Paying a premium to pass the risk to another party. Requiring Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) provisions. Retaining Risk Making a conscious decision to accept the risk.,738,Contingency Planning,Contingency Plan An alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs. A plan of actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact (consequences) of a risk event. Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan Having no plan may slow managerial response. Decisions made under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly.,739,Risk and Contingency Planning,Technical Risks Backup strategies if chosen technology fails. Assessing whether technical uncertainties can be resolved. Schedule Risks Use of slack increases the risk of a late project finish. Imposed duration dates (absolute project finish date) Compression of project schedules due to a shortened project duration date.,740,Risk Response Matrix,FIGURE 7.8,741,Risk and Contingency Planning (contd),Costs Risks Time/cost dependency links: costs increase when problems take longer to solve than expected. Deciding to use the schedule to solve cash flow problems should be avoided. Price protection risks (a rise in input costs) increase if the duration of a project is increased. Funding Risks Changes in the supply of funds for the project can dramatically affect the likelihood of implementation or successful completion of a project.,742,Opportunity Management Tactics,Exploit Seeking to eliminate the uncertainty associated with an opportunity to ensure that it definitely happens. Share Allocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to another party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Enhance Taking action to increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an opportunity. Accept Being willing to take advantage of an opportunity if it occurs, but not taking action to pursue it.,743,Contingency Funding and Time Buffers,Contingency Funds Funds to cover project risksidentified and unknown. Size of funds reflects overall risk of a project Budget reserves Are linked to the identified risks of specific work packages. Management reserves Are large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks (e.g., change in project scope) of the total project. Time Buffers Amounts of time used to compensate for unplanned delays in the project schedule. Severe risk, merge, noncritical, and scarce resource activities,744,Contingency Fund Estimate ($000s),TABLE 7.1,745,Managing Risk (contd),Step 4: Risk Response Control Risk control Execution of the risk response strategy Monitoring of triggering events Initiating contingency plans Watching for new risks Establishing a Change Management System Monitoring, tracking, and reporting risk Fostering an open organization environment Repeating risk identification/assessment exercises Assigning and documenting responsibility for managing risk,746,Change Management Control,Sources of Change Project scope changes Implementation of contingency plans Improvement changes,747,Change Control System Process,Identify proposed changes. List expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove of changes formally. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, condition, and cost. Communicate changes to parties affected. Assign responsibility for implementing change. Adjust master schedule and budget. Track all changes that are to be implemented,748,The Change Control Process,FIGURE 7.9,749,Benefits of a Change Control System,Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process. Costs of changes are maintained in a log. Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained. Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked. Responsibility for implementation is clarified. Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved. Implementation of change is monitored. Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures.,750,Sample Change Request Form,FIGURE 7.10,751,Change Request Log,FIGURE 7.11,752,Key Terms,Avoiding risk Budget reserve Change management system Contingency plan Management reserve Mitigating risk Opportunity Risk,Risk breakdown structure (RBS) Risk register Risk profile Risk severity matrix Scenario analysis Sharing risk Time buffer Transferring risk,Appendix 7.1,PERT and PERT Simulation,754,PERTProgram Evaluation Review Technique,Assumes each activity duration has a range that statistically follows a beta distribution. Uses three time estimates for each activity: optimistic, pessimistic, and a weighted average to represent activity durations. Knowing the weighted average and variances for each activity allows the project planner to compute the probability of meeting different project durations.,755,Activity and Project Frequency Distributions,FIGURE A7.1,756,Activity Time Calculations,757,Activity Time Calculations (contd),758,Activity Times and Variances,TABLE A7.1,759,Probability of Completing the Project,760,Hypothetical Network,FIGURE A7.2,761,Hypothetical Network (contd),FIGURE A7.2 (contd),762,Possible Project Duration,FIGURE A7.3,763,Z Values and Probabilities,TABLE A7.2,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,64,1,An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objectives is termed. c A. Random chance B. A disaster C. Risk D. Hazard E. Bad luck,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,65,2,The chances of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends to e A. Slowly rise B. Drop sharply and then level out C. Rise sharply and then level out D. Remain about the same E. Slowly drop,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,66,3,The cost impact of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends to a A. Slowly rise B. Drop sharply and then level out C. Rise sharply and then level out D. Remain about the same E. Slowly drop,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,67,4,The attempt to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when a project is implemented is known as b A. Risk forecasting B. Risk management C. Contingency planning D. Scenario analysis E. Disaster protection,5,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,68,Which of the following is not one of the steps in the risk management process? d A. Risk response development B. Risk assessment C. Risk identification D. Risk tracking E. Risk response control,6,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,69,The initial step in the risk management process is to c A. Determine the level of acceptable risk B. Assess the risk potential C. Identify the risks D. Set aside budget funds for managing the risks E. Appoint a risk manager,7,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,70,One common mistake made early in the risk identification process is to d A. Not all possibilities are considered B. Participants are over-optimistic C. Participants are over-pessimistic D. Focus on objectives and not on the events that could produce consequences. E. Too much attention is given to past events,8,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,71,In the beginning the focus of risk management should be on risks that a A. Impact the whole project B. Impact the critical path C. Are known D. Have the greatest cost impact E. Have the greatest schedule impact,9,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,72,The 1999 NASA Mars Climate Orbiter is an example of d A. Disaster avoidance through proactive risk management B. Murphy's Law C. Proper use of critical thinking D. Mismanaged risk control E. Using historical records to assess risk,10,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,73,Which of the following would not be considered a threat? b A. Inflation B. Meeting the project schedule C. International disruptions D. Economic conditions E. Competition,11,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,74,A list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project is termed a risk a A. Risk profile B. Questionnaire C. Research D. Query E. Checklist,12,2019/7/1,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,75,Which of the following is typically included in risk profiles? d A.