ACRP-Problem-No-10-03-01.pdf

ACRP Problem No. 10-03-01 Recommended: Yes Airport Accident Third-Party Risk Analysis Model for Land Use Compatibility ACRP Staff This problem statement intends to analyze aircraft incident data in order to develop a risk assessment model related to third-party risk on and adjacent to the airport. It expands upon research reported in ACRP Report 4, Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas and was recommended by the research team and project panel for ACRP project A03-03, Enhancing Land Use Compatibility. Although ACRP project A04-09, Risk Assessment Method to Support Modification of Airfield Separation Standards also intends to develop a risk assessment model, it is not targeting third-party risk. Rather, it is to be used by airports who seek FAA approval on modification to taxiway to taxiway (and fixed objects) separation standards. TRB Aviation Group Aviation System Planning Cmte: This research could be helpful in land use compatibility planning. Many areas rely on California's statistics for use in their planning documents and an update would be useful. It might be worthwhile to look at the work being done by Christian Salmon, one of the recipients of an ACRP Graduate Research Award. ACRP Screening Panel Appears to be more appropriate for FAA policy determination. AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM PROBLEM STATEMENT A AC CR RP P Problem Number: Problem Number: 10-03-01 I. PROBLEM TITLE Airport Accident Third-Party Risk Analysis Model for Land Use Compatibility II. RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT The risk to those living and working around airports from an aircraft accident is one of the major concerns in airport land use compatibility planning. In the U.S there is no national policy on a methodology for assessing the third-party accident risk, based on the air traffic composition, activity level, operational procedures, airport geometry, and physical conditions for an individual airport. In the United Kingdom and the Netherlands models have been developed to generate accident risk contours around an individual airport. In the U.S. some state aeronautics departments, e.g. California and Washington State, have included procedures for assessing airport safety risks in their Airport Land Use Compatibility Planning Guides. But those procedures are applied broadly to various classes of airports and are unable to account for the effect of local circumstances and differences in air traffic activity level and characteristics on the accident risk to those around the airport. Moreover, the underlying studies are based on aircraft accident data that are now more than ten years old that do not take account of the improvements in aircraft operational safety records in the last decade. ACRP Project 03-03, “Enhancing Airport Land Use Compatibility” has identified the need for the U.S. to develop a rational model for third-party safety risk analysis for individual airports. This would be a valuable tool for local governments to enact appropriate land use zoning to protect the safety of those living and working near airports from potential risk from an aircraft accident as a result of encroaching land use developments. III. OBJECTIVE To develop an airport accident third-party risk analysis model based on the latest available aircraft accident data, and that can take into consideration air traffic activity levels and composition, operational procedures, airport layout, and topography and physical constraints around an individual airport. IV. RESEARCH PROPOSED The proposed research would include the following tasks: Assemble the latest aircraft accident data from various sources identified in the ACRP Project 03-03 technical memo “Aircraft Accident Location Data”, including studies by the FAA, the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS) at the University of California, the Airline Pilots Association (ALPA), and the worldwide aircraft accident data bases assembled by the U.K. National Air Traffic Services (NATS), and the Netherlands National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR). In addition, review the data developed as part of ACRP Project 04-01 (under study), the airport land use planning guides of California, Washington State, Oregon, and Minnesota, and other sources. Analyze, establish, and document the causal relationships between the aircraft accidents and the various elements of air traffic, airport geometry, and physical features around an airport. Design and implement a prototype aircraft accident third-party risk analysis model that can generate risk contours that account for the circumstances and conditions at a given airport. Disseminate the prototype model for review by a panel of aircraft safety and modeling experts and revise the prototype model to respond to review comments. 2 Prepare a development plan and cost estimates for the subsequent steps in producing an operational version of the model. The Federal government (FAA) in collaboration with states (National Association of State Aviation Officials- NASAO) could then undertake the development of an operational model for predicting aircraft accident third-party risk around an individual airport. Research literature on existing policies on acceptable risk associated with different land uses as a background for risk analysis. Identify general guidelines for addressing third-party risk for land uses around airports as part of land use planning by local communities, and to assist those communities balance the economic and safety issues involved in deciding the location and intensity of allowable development of land around airports. It should be recognized that developing software for public use requires a significant level of resources. In view of the complexities involved and skills required for developing a production version of the model, it is felt advisable to limit this research effort to developing a prototype version of the model for subsequent testing and validation. This approach is consistent with the research mission of the ACRP. V. ESTIMATE OF THE PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD Recommended Funding: It is estimated that the proposed research to develop a prototype model in an understandable and usable format and prepare general guidelines on the use of third-party risk analysis in land use planning would require about 24 months of effort by suitably experienced research team, for a required funding level of around $500,000. Research Period: It is anticipated that the proposed research could be completed in 24 months. The first 9 months would be spent assembling and analyzing the necessary data in order to design the model; twelve (12) months would be spent for designing, testing, and verification of a prototype version of the model, undertaking a peer review of the prototype model by safety and modeling experts, and preparing general guidelines on the use of third-party risk analysis in land use planning; and 3 months for review and revision of the report. VI. URGENCY AND PAYOFF POTENTIAL Ensuring third-party safety from the risk of aircraft accidents is one of the three major elements in airport land use compatibility planning (aircraft noise impacts and protection of aircraft from obstacles or other hazards to flight are the others). Whereas there are established models and policies for aircraft noise impact analysis and established criteria and procedures for preventing obstacles and other hazards to flight, there is no corresponding methodology and policy for third-party risk analysis in the U.S. In Europe the U.K. and Netherlands have developed risk analysis models but these primarily focus on commercial aircraft (since general aviation forms a smaller proportion of aviation activity in Europe) and are based on worldwide accident data (since both countries have limited recent experience with commercial aircraft accidents). The airport land use planning guides developed by some states are based on defining a system of safety zones around airports that do not vary for a given class of airport (or length of runway) and do not provide a means for performing detailed safety risk analysis at an individual airport. In fact some states and local communities have raised serious concerns with this approach and this has become a national issue that is affecting airports and property owners across the country in every state. Property acquisition costs have risen throughout the country and there is an urgent need for a rational methodology for assessing the third-party risk for an individual airport to avoid property acquisition and legal cost based on an inaccurate analysis. Finally, the proposed research will provide a tool for enhancing land use compatibility, protecting valuable airports assets, and ensuring adequate levels of safety for airport neighbors. VII. RELATED RESEARCH ACRP 03-03 “Enhancing Airport Land Use Compatibility.” The Project Panel has identified this as a major issue and has recommended including development of an initial aircraft accident database in the planned research. ACRP 04-01 “Aircraft Overrun and Undershoot Analysis for Runway Safety Areas” will include useful data for the proposed research. Its scope also includes models for the safety analysis for the runway approach and departure zones. The proposed research will include an analysis of aircraft accident risk in areas adjacent to the sides of a runway, as well as under the approach and departure flight paths. 3 VIII. PERSON(S) DEVELOPING THE PROBLEM STATEMEMT This problem statement has been developed by: Ashraf Jan, Special Assistant to Assoc. Administrator, Airports, Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, DC 20591; telephone: (202) 493-5095; fax: (202) 267- 5383; e-mail: ashraf.janfaa.gov Raymond Rought, Assistant to Director, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Planning, Model and Data Management Division, St. Paul, MN 55155-1899; telephone: (651) 366-4836; e-mail: ray.roughtdot.state.mn.us Geoffrey Gosling, Principal, Aviation System Consulting, LLC, 805 Colusa Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94707; telephone: (510) 528-8741; fax: (510) 528-8745; e-mail: gdgoslingaol.com. IX. PROCESS USED TO DEVELOP PROBLEM STATEMENT Recommendation by the members of the ACRP Project 03-03 Panel. Discussions among the members of the FAA Chartered Committee on Airport Land Use Compatibility, including federal, state, regional and local agencies, and representatives of aviation industry. Discussions regarding airport land use planning issues at TRB, American Planning Association (APA), AAAE, ACI, and other professional forums. X. DATE AND SUBMITTED BY Date of submission: February 24, 2009 Submitted by: The ACRP Project 03-03 Panel: Frederick R. Busch, Director, Planning and Noise Denver Int. Airport (Phone: 303-342 2601; Email: rick.buschdiadenver.net), Mark R. Johnson, Associate Director, Jacobs Consultancy (Phone: 913- 642 4471; Email: mark.johnsonjacobs-consutancy.com), Sandra J. Lancaster, Manager Noise Compatibility Office, Dallas/Fort worth Int. Airport (Phone: 972- 973-5573: Email: slancasterdfwairport.com), Steven F. Pflaum, McDermott Will Email: spflaummwe.com), Raymond J. Rought, Assist to the Director, Planning Model Div., Minnesota DOT (Phone:651- 366 4836; Email: ray.roughtdot.state.mn.us), Dr. Amiy Varma, Assoc. Professor, North Dakota State University (Phone:701- 231 7041; Email: amiy.varmandsu.edu), Patricia A. Friesenhahn, Environmental Specialist, FAA- AEE (Phone: 202- 267 3562; Email: patricia.friesenhahnfaa.gov), Ashraf Jan , Special Assistant to Assoc. Administrator, Airports, FAA, APP 400 (Phone: 202 493 5095; Email: ashraf.janfaa.gov), Richard Marchi, Senior Advisor- Policy and Regulatory Affairs, Airport Council International-NA ( Phone; 202-293 8500; Email: rmarchiaci-na.aero), Stacy Swigart, Director Airport Support Services, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (Phone: 301- 695 2401; Email: stacy.swigartaopa.org), Paul L. Friedman, FAA-AAS 100 (Phone: 202- 267 3367; Email: paul.friedmanfaa.gov), Jason A. Gately, Aviation Planner, Port of Portland, Oregon (Phone: 503-460 4570; Email: Jason.gatelyportofportland.com), William V. Cheek, Aviation Consultant, Prescott, AZ (Phone; 928- 776 8745; Email: cheekbpr.erau.edu).