India Shipping Report Q2 2012.pdf

Q2 2012 www.businessmonitor.com shipping RepoRt issn 2040-9737 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. inDiA INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subsbusinessmonitor.com Web: http:/www.businessmonitor.com © 2012 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. 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INDIA SHIPPING REPORT Q2 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2016 Part of BMI's Industry Report Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments 44 Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing . 47 Global Overview Liquid Bulk Shipping . 50 Summary Liquid Bulk Survival Tactics Deployed In Force In 2012 50 2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor . 51 Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector 56 Industry Trends And Developments 62 Container Shipping Market Overview 72 Industry Forecast . 81 Port Of Jawaharlal Nehru Throughput Overview 81 Table: India Economic Activity, 2012-2017 81 Port Of Chennai . 83 Table: Major Port Data Throughput, 2009-2016 86 Trade . 88 Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 . 88 Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) . 89 Table: India's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 90 Table: India's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 90 Company Profiles . 91 Varun Shipping 91 Mercator Lines 93 Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) . 97 Great Eastern Shipping (GE Shipping) .101 India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Maersk Line 104 Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 111 CMA CGM 115 COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON).119 Hapag-Lloyd .124 APL .129 Evergreen Line .135 China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) .139 Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 143 Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container).147 India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5 Executive Summary India's economy and trade continues to expand rapidly. BMI expects this growth to slow, but the expansion will still be considerable over our forecast period. The volumes of dry bulk and containers being processed at the country's facilities are causing congestion at the ageing state-owned ports. This is leading to a raft of new private facilities being established all over the country amid worries that the Indian ports sector will be unable to maintain pace with demand growth. Some foreign players remain wary of India's business environment, however. Headline Industry Data ? 2011/12 Port of Kandla tonnage throughput forecast to grow 0.4%, and to average 7.6% to 2016/17. ? 2011/12 Port of Jawaharlal Nehru container throughput forecast to grow 2.8%, and to average 7.3% per annum to the end of our forecast period. ? 2011/12 trade real growth forecast at 13.8%, and to average 10.0% to 2016/17. Key Industry Trends APMT Looks To Indian Ports Growth BMI believes that further investment by international terminals operator APM Terminals (APMT) in the Indian ports sector would be beneficial to both parties: India will receive APMT's expertise, while APMT can expect volumes to show strong growth in the years to come. We note, however, that the Indian Ministry of Shipping may be wary of the Danish company following the delay to Mumbai's fourth terminal caused by APMT's plea in the Supreme Court. Bids For Vizhinjam Not Forthcoming In Light Of Continued Cabotage Restrictions We believe that the investment currently being made at the Vizhinjam International Seaport could be for naught if the Indian government does not relax its strict cabotage laws, which prevent transhipment in India being undertaken by a foreign vessel. The stifling effect of these restrictions has already become apparent on the throughput volumes being handled at the International Container Transhipment Terminal (ICTT) further north up the Keralan coastline at Vallarpadam. New Concor Service Linking NMPT With Bangalore Gives Upside Risk To BMI Forecasts BMI believes that the commencement of a container train service between the commercially important city of Bangalore and the New Mangalore Port Trust (NMPT) offers upside potential for Indian rail India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 freight volumes. Further, it will help the NMPT in its drive to diversify away from its lost iron ore export volumes. Key Risks To Outlook The key risk to our throughput forecasts for India's ports is the congestion we have seen at the two key facilities of JNPT and Chennai. There are downside growth risks from spiralling inflation. Should food prices and oil prices maintain their upward march, there is a risk that we could see additional monetary tightening, which would surely come at the expense of headline economic growth. This would have a negative effect on throughput at the country's ports. India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 SWOT Analysis India Shipping SWOT Strengths ? India's largest container port, JNPT, has already recaptured its pre-downturn container throughput levels. ? India's location on the Indian Ocean allows access to the major east-West shipping routes. Trade can reach the West either via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope and shipping routes east can link India to its main trade partner, China. ? India's ports feature as ports of call on Maersk Line, Hanjin, Hamburg Sud and CMA CGM services. ? Several domestic shipping companies are expanding their fleets, including Shipping Corporation of India (SCI). Weaknesses ? Decades of underinvestment in India's maritime sector have left the country's ports and merchant fleet poorly developed, and significant investment will be required to meet India's growing trade needs. ? High levels of bureaucracy and instances of corruption are reportedly preventing government funding from filtering down into new port projects. Opportunities ? India has free-trade agreements with the ASEAN region and a number of other states. ? More than US$4bn was expected to be invested in India's port sector in 2010; similar or higher capital expenditure can be expected for 2011. ? DP World's new International Container Transhipment Terminal will enable the Indian maritime freight sector to tranship for itself rather than relying on other countries' ports. ? Adani Group (Adani) plans to invest US$1.3bn in the next three to five years to expand India's largest private port, the Port of Mundra. Threats ? Major developments taking place in Sri Lanka's port sector may reduce demand for transhipment services at southern Indian ports. ? Restrictions on the shipping of iron ore has had an effect on a number of Indian ports and continues to pose downside risk. ? India's high inflation levels threaten to undermine consumer confidence and therefore import volumes. ? India's ports have suffered from congestion during 2011, potentially slowing the country's growth trajectory. India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 India Political SWOT Strengths ? India is the world's largest democracy. A secular constitution, framed in 1950, officially guarantees justice, liberty and equality while aiming to promote fraternity among the citizenry. More than 1,000 political parties registered for the April-May 2009 general elections, competing for the preference of India's 714mn eligible voters. ? Despite its multitude of problems, India has generally managed to avoid hard authoritarian rule or military coups, which have happened in many other developing countries, including India's neighbours Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. Weaknesses ? Large coalition governments complicate policymaking at the centre as coalition partners and outside parties pursue their own agendas. The competence of state government varies enormously across India's 35 states and union territories. ? India's tense relationship with Pakistan still weighs on regional stability. The two countries have gone to war three times since they were 'partitioned' on independence from British rule in 1947. ? Issues such as the ineffectiveness of the executive and judiciary in controlling underhand practices, the apparent arbitrary allocation of government licences, and the uneasy influence of special interest groups remain key investor concerns. Opportunities ? India has in recent years edged closer to the US in foreign policy. Both the US and India are democracies and face threats from militant Islamists; this, combined with the presence of a 2mn-strong affluent Indian diaspora in the US, is bringing the two countries closer together. ? Thawing relations with Pakistan has made it easier for the parties to defuse potentially explosive situations, such as the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, which Islamabad acknowledges were planned and launched from its territory. Threats ? Hindu nationalism presents a growing threat to India's constitutionally enshrined secularism. Communal skirmishes between the Hindu majority and minority groups have sometimes erupted into violence. ? India has experienced a series of serious terrorist attacks over the past two years, perpetrated by radical Islamist and rural Maoist groups. The surge in Naxalite attacks in 2010 has raised the spectre of further violence. India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 India Economic SWOT Strengths ? India has a very large domestic market, and rising domestic demand is a major driver of economic growth. ? A vast supply of inexpensive but skilled labour has turned India into the back office of the world. Around half of the population is younger than 25. ? Booming exports of IT-enabled services, from call centres to software developers, are a valuable source of foreign exchange. Weaknesses ? Despite rapid economic growth, India remains a very poor country. According to BMI estimates, India's GDP per capita was US$1,614 in 2011, a third of the size of China's. ? Agriculture remains inefficient, and poor monsoon rains can slash rural incomes and consumption. Two-thirds of the population depend on farming for their livelihood. ? India has chronic trade and fiscal deficits, the latter of which has ballooned due to fiscal stimulus measures. The government spends a significant part of its revenue on interest payments, salaries and pensions. This limits the amount of money available for infrastructure improvements. Opportunities ? India's emerging middle class will continue to drive demand for new goods and services. A wealthier society, combined with tax reforms, would serve to boost revenue receipts, relieving fiscal pressure. ? The government has implemented some tax reforms. A uniform goods and services tax to be implemented in FY2011/12 should help boost compliance, thereby raising government revenue. Threats ? India's dependency on oil imports is problematic. This undermines the trade balance and makes India vulnerable to energy price-driven inflation. ? India is at risk of severe environmental problems. Many of its cities' air and rivers are heavily polluted, raising questions about the sustainability of the economy's rapid growth. India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 India Business Environment SWOT Strengths ? India is now one of the biggest recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) among emerging markets, having attracted US$19.4bn of inflows in FY2010/11. ? An inexpensive but skilled English-speaking labour force can do the jobs of Western workers for a fraction of the wages paid in North America or Europe. Weaknesses ? Despite pockets of excellence, such as the IT sector, overall literacy rates in India remain far lower than in other Asian and key emerging market nations. ? India's infrastructure is notoriously inadequate. A 500km road journey can take as much as 24 hours owing to poor road conditions, congestion and toll booths. ? The competitiveness of local firms is undermined by reams of official red tape, from foreign investment restrictions to inflexible labour laws. ? Intellectual property rights are poorly protected in India. India was one of 11 countries on the 'priority watch list' for 2009 compiled by the Office of the US Trade Representative. Opportunities ? India could enhance the competitiveness of local industry through further liberalisation and deregulation. ? Ongoing infrastructure projects ranging from roads, railways and airports are likely to provide opportunities for foreign investors for many years to come. ? Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is eager to reform the banking sector in order to increase the availability of long-term financing, particularly for large infrastructure projects. Threats ? The arrival of Western players, including management consultants Accenture and technology giant IBM, is bidding up local wages in the outsourcing sector. India faces growing challenges from countries such as Vietnam and, potentially, Bangladesh in a variety of sectors. ? China still remains a major competitor for FDI flows into India. India has excessive bureaucracy and poor infrastructure in comparison with China. ? The November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks demonstrated that security issues will remain a key investor consideration. India Shipping Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Global Overview Container Shipping Summary Carriers Face Threats Of Declining Demand And Overcapacity BMI believes that the twin forces of overcapacity and declining volumes, on the back of slower economic growth in the main demand markets of the US and eurozone, will force rates down once more, and carriers will once again face the prospect of further losses. While rates plunged in 2011 due to overcapacity, we believe that the threat of a drop off in demand could see a 2009 downturn scenario play out. I