农林论文河北省退耕还林工程社会效益分析.doc

河北省退耕还林工程社会效益分析 河北省退耕还林工程社会效益分析 Analysis on the Social Benefits of Cropland Conversion into Forest Project in Hebei Province【中文摘要】 退耕还林工程既是推动我国新世纪林业实现快速发展的六大重点工程之一,也是世界十大重点生态工程之一,在我国乃至世界生态建设中都具有十分重要的地位。退耕还林工程是我国投资规模最大的生态工程,也是我国生态工程中涉及面最广、工序最复杂的生态工程,退耕还林工程建设后的效益如何,是全社会关注的焦点。针对退耕还林工程建设的效益问题,开展评价工作十分必要。本文在分析当前国内外林业工程的效益评价指标体系及研究现状的基础上,以河北省退耕还林区为研究对象,采取理论总结与统计数据相结合的方法,分别对退耕还林工程区的人口、从业结构、粮食产量以及经济收入变化情况等指标进行系统的现状研究;同时,运用VARMA方法,经过二次差分,选取拟合优度较高的模型对河北省退耕区的社会效益进行预测分析。研究结果表明:(1)通过退耕还林,农村从业结构产生了很大的变化。河北省退耕区总人口逐年上升,耕作人口逐年减少,从事非农业劳动人口增加,且随着退耕还林年数的增加,趋势也越来越明显。(2)退耕还林工程的实施会对退耕区的粮食生产带来影响。实施退耕还林后,耕种面积减少,从而引起粮食总产的降低,但基本农田保持不变,退耕户将用于原退耕地的那部分资金投入来购置农药、化肥、农具等生产资料、加强基本农田和水利设施的建设,单位面积的劳力、肥力、科技投入明显增加,提高了耕地质量,从而提高了粮食单产和总产产量。(3)退耕还林工程对河北省退耕区农民家庭收入以及消费状况也产生了很大的影响。农民人均年纯收入逐年增加,家庭的经济状况得到了改善,农民的生活水平有了一定提高。(4)通过对河北省退耕区社会效益进行预测分析得出,随着退耕还林年数的增加,退耕区的社会效益的优势越来越明显。退耕还林后当地的粮食产量没有受到影响,退耕还林政策日趋科学化、合理化,对粮食安全问题影响越来越小。而且随着退耕还林年数的增加和政策制度的完善,退耕区人均收入增长的幅度也较明显。本文为退耕还林效益分析研究提供了科学、客观的分析指标和方法,研究结果将对今后河北省退耕还林工程的科学决策及顺利实施具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。【英文摘要】 Cropland Conversion into Forest Project (CCFP) is not only one of the major six projects which promote the development of Chinas forestry in new century quickly, but also one of the ten major ecological projects in the world. It plays an important role in ecological construction both in China and all over the world. CCFP is one of the ecological projects which have large scale investment、wide covering、and complex process in China. The efficiency of CCFP is in focus and paid attention by the entire society. So it is necessary to evaluate the quality and efficiency of CCFP construction project.Based on the analysis of the evaluation system and research status of the benefit of forestry project domestic and abroad, CCFP situation of Hebei province is regarded as the research object in this paper. We used the method combining theoretical analysis with data statistics to systematically study the present situation and predict some index, including employment structure, grain yield, and income. Then VARMA method was used to forecast and analyzed social benefits.The results show that:(1) The rural labor occupation structure produces a great change by CCFP. Population transported from agriculture to non-agricultural (industrial, construction, transportation, wholesale and retail trade) increases gradually, among which, the proportion of employees in construction industry have more obvious upward trend. With years of returning farmland to forests increase, the trend has become increasingly evident.(2) The implementation of CCFP will have impact on local food production. After CCFP, the cultivation area decreased, which led to the reduction of total grain output, but the basic farmland remain, returning families will invest capital used to spend on agricultural fields in purchasing pesticides, fertilizers, farm tools and other means of production, strengthening of basic farmland and water conservancy facilities, the labor per unit area, fertility, increased investment in science and technology, to improve the quality of the arable land, resulting in improved grain yield and the total production output.(3) After CCFP in Hebei Province, income of farmers whose land has been reclaimed, as well as consumption of household have a big impact. Farmers whose land has been reclaimed increase their income, and families economic situations are improved, some farmers raise the standard of living. Other aspects of living and spending (mainly clothing, housing and daily necessities, etc.) have improved with different degrees.(4) According to predicting the social benefit , the results show that, with years of returning farmland to forests increasing, of social benefits of farmland areas will be more and more obvious. After returning farmland to forests, local food production is not affected, and the policy of returning farmland to forest growing more and more scientific and rationale, and the impact on food security issues is getting smaller and smaller. As years of Returning farmland to forests increase and the system and policies become perfect, people income growth in farmland area is also more outstanding.In this paper, benefit analysis with regard to returning farmland to forest is studied, which provide a scientific and objective analysis of the objectives and methodology, the results can supervise future decision-making on the project of returning farmland to forest, and the implementation of the project of returning farmland to forest, which shows an important theoretical value and practical significance. 还原【中文关键词】 退耕还林; 社会效益; 河北省 【英文关键词】 Cropland Conversion into Forest Project; Social Benefits; Hebei Province 【论文目录】摘要 4-5 Abstract 5-6 1 引言 9-21 1.1 研究背景 9-10 1.1.1 直接背景 9 1.1.2 间接背景 9-10 1.2 国内外相关研究现状 10-14 1.2.1 国外退耕还林情况 10-12 1.2.2 我国退耕还林发展 12-13 1.2.3 国内外实践与研究启示 13-14 1.3 退耕还林工程社会效益评价研究现状 14-21 1.3.1 社会效益评价的主要内容及角度 15 1.3.2 社会效益评价采用的方式和方法 15-16 1.3.3 社会效益评价的最终成果及结论 16-17 1.3.4 社会效益评价中提出的问题、对策及建议 17-18 1.3.5 社会效益评价中存在的不足及发展趋势 18-21 2 研究地区概况 21-26 2.1 研究地基本特征 21-24 2.1.1 自然条件特征 21-22 2.1.2 社会经济状况 22-24 2.2 河北省退耕还林情况 24-26 3 研究内容、方法及技术路线 26-28 3.1 研究内容 26 3.2 研究方法 26-27 3.3 研究技术路线 27-28 4 河北省退耕还林社会效益分析 28-36 4.1 河北省退耕还林工程区耕地资源分析 28 4.2 河北省退耕还林工程区从业结构现状分析 28-31 4.3 退耕还林工程对粮食安全及生活水平影响分析 31-36 4.3.1 退耕还林工程对粮食安全影响分析 32-34 4.3.2 退耕区农民生活水平现状分析 34-36 5 退耕还林工程社会效益预测分析 36-56 5.1 VARMA 方法简介 36-39 5.1.1 VARMA 模型构建 36-37 5.1.2 VARMA 参数估计 37-38 5.1.3 模型定阶 38-39 5.1.4 序列预测 39 5.2 VARMA 多维时间序列模型应用 39-56 5.2.1 河北省退耕区就业结构预测分析 39-46 5.2.2 河北省退耕区粮食安全预测分析 46-52 5.2.3 河北省退耕区农民生活水平预测分析 52-56 6 结论与建议 56-58 6.1 研究的结论 56 6.2 相关问题与建议 56-58 6.2.1 存在的问题 56-57 6.2.2 建议 57-58 参考文献 58-61 在读期间发表的学术论文 61-62 作者简历 62-63 致谢 63