外汇储备论文:我国外汇储备适度规模研究[全文].doc
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1、外汇储备论文:我国外汇储备适度规模研究【中文摘要】1997年的亚洲金融危机使各国都切实认识到外汇储备的重要性。近些年来随着我国经济的发展和汇率制度的改革,我国外汇储备总量迅猛增长,但是外汇储备并非越多越好,一国的外汇储备应该保持适度的规模,与该国的经济发展水平相适应。本文在介绍了选题背景和国内外学者在外汇储备规模问题上的相关研究基础之上,首先对我国的外汇储备进行了描述性分析,包括:我国外汇储备历年增长概况、外汇储备持续增长的原因以及当前大规模的外汇储备带来的正面与负面影响。接着本文以经典的阿格沃尔模型为基础对我国19912010年外汇储备适度规模问题进行实证研究,得出结论:19912001年我
2、国外汇储备不足;20022003年外汇储备适度;从2004年起,我国外汇储备总量开始超过适度外汇储备量,而且实际量与适度量之间的差距越来越大。而这一时期也正是我国外汇储备高速增长的阶段。在实证部分本文还以特里芬的比例分析法为基础,尝试建立外汇储备规模预警模型,以期对我国外汇储备积极管理带来帮助和指导。最后针对目前过量的外汇储备本文提出了外汇储备规模管理的两方面内容:降低外汇储备增长速度和外汇储备资产的运用,以及各自相应的对策。【英文摘要】The 1997 financial crisis have made each country in the world realized the impo
3、rtance of foreign exchange reserve1. In recent years, with the growth of our countrys economic and the reform of exchange rate regime, the total amount of foreign exchange reserve of our country is soaring rapidly. However, the concept of the more, the better doesnt apply to reserve. A countrys fore
4、ign exchange reserve should keep a proper scale should be in a due proportion with the countrys economic level.On the basis of background introduction and some relevant research on the scale of foreign exchange reserve made by scholars from home and abroad, at the beginning the paper has made a desc
5、riptive analysis on the reserve of our country, including the general growth situation, the causes of continuous development and both the positive and negative effects brought by the extremely large scale of the reserve.The paper then makes an empirical research on the scale of the reserve of our co
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