Project Risk Management:项目风险管理.doc
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1、Project Risk ManagementRisk management is the systematic process of identifying, analyzing and responding to potential project risk. It includes maximizing the probability and impact of positive events and minimizing the probability and consequences of events adverse to project objectives. Figure 11
2、.1 provides an overview of the following major processes. 11.1 Risk Management Planningdeciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project.11.2 Risk Identificationdetermining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics.11.3 Qualitative Risk A
3、nalysisperforming a qualitative analysis of risks and conditions to prioritize their effects on project objectives.11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysismeasuring the probability and impact of risks and estimating their implications for project objectives. 11.5 Risk Response Planningdeveloping procedures a
4、nd techniques to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to the projects objectives.11.6 Risk Monitoring and Controlmonitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, executing risk reduction plans and evaluating their effectiveness through the project life cycle.Note to insert chart with process
5、es with inputs, tools & techniques, outputs like pg 112 of the PMBOK Guide, 1996These processes interact with each other and with the processes in the other knowledge areas. Each process generally occurs at least once in every project. Although processes are presented here as discrete elements with
6、well-defined interfaces, in practice they may overlap and interact in ways not detailed here. Process interactions are discussed in detail in Chapter 3.Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objective. A risk has a cause and
7、, if it occurs, an impact. For example, the cause may be requiring a permit or having limited personnel assigned to the project. The risk event is that the permit may take longer than planned or the personnel may not be adequate for the task. If either of these uncertain events occurs, there will be
8、 an impact on the project cost, schedule or quality. Risk conditions include practices or aspects of the project environment that may make contribute to project risk such as a lack of project scheduling personnel or inability to make decisions in a timely fashion.Project risk includes both threats t
9、o the projects objectives and opportunities to improve on those objectives. It has its origins in the uncertainty that is present in all projects. Risks may be known unknowns; risks that are identified, assessed and quantified and for which plans can be made. Risks may be unknown unknowns; risks tha
10、t are not yet identified or are impossible to predict. Although specific risks or conditions are not identified, project managers know from past experience that a general level of risk can be expected. Risk should be related to reward. Risks accepted should be in balance with the reward that may be
11、gained by taking the risk. For example, a fast-track schedule is a risk taken to achieve the benefit of a shortened schedule.To be successful, the organization must be committed to addressing risk management seriously throughout the project. One measure of the organizational commitment is its dedica
12、tion to gathering high-quality and honest data on project risks and their characteristics.11.1 Risk Management PlanningRisk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project. It is important to plan for the risk management processes
13、that follow to ensure that the level, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with both the risk and importance of the project to the organization. 11.1.1 Inputs to Risk Management Planning.1 Project charter. The project charter is discussed in section 5.1.3.1. It includes the busin
14、ess needs and project description at a level appropriate to the needs of the project.2 Organizations risk management policies. Some organizations may have predefined methods for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis.3 Defined roles and responsibilities. Predefined roles, responsibilities and au
15、thority levels for decision-making will influence planning.4 Stakeholder risk tolerances. Different organizations and different individuals have different tolerances for risk. These may be expressed in policy statements or revealed in actions.5 Template for the organizations risk management plan. A
16、pro-forma standard that the organization has developed for risk management generally. That standard must be adapted to each project by the project manager or the risk management team. It should be improved based on experience from each project.7 Work breakdown structure. The WBS is described in sect
17、ion 5.3.3.1.11.1.2 Tools and Techniques for Risk Management Planning.1 Planning meetings. These are designed to adapt the risk management plan template to the current project. Attendees include the project manager, the project team leaders, anyone in the organization with responsibility to manage th
18、e risk planning and execution activities, key stakeholders and others as needed.11.1.3 Outputs from Risk Management Planning.1 Risk management plan. The risk management plan documents how risk identification, assessment, quantification, response planning, monitoring and control will be structured an
19、d performed during the project life cycle. The risk management plan does not address responses to individual risks this is accomplished in the risk response plan that is discussed in section 11.5.3. The risk management plan may include: .Methodology. defines theapproaches, tools and data sources tha
20、t may be used to perform risk management on this project. Roles and responsibilities. Defines the lead, support and risk management team membership for each type of action in the risk management plan. Risk management teams organized outside of the project office may be able to perform more independe
21、nt, unbiased risk analyses of projects than those from the sponsoring project team. Timing. Defines how often the risk management process will be performed through the project life cycle. Results should be developed early enough to affect decisions. The decisions should be revisited periodically dur
22、ing project execution. Scoring and interpretation. The scoring and interpretation methods appropriate for the type and timing of the qualitative and quantitative risk analysis being performed. Methods and scoring must be determined in advance to ensure consistency. Thresholds. The threshold criteria
23、 for risks that will be acted upon, by whom and in what manner. The project customer or originator may have a different risk threshold from the providing organization. The acceptable threshold forms the target against which the project team will measure the effectiveness of the risk response plan ex
24、ecution. Reporting formats. Describes the content and format of the risk response plan described in Section 11.5.3. Defines how the results of the risk management processes will be documented, analyzed and communicated to the project team, internal and external stakeholders, sponsors and others. Tra
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