项目融资及信贷风险管理.ppt
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1、Project Finance and Credit Risk Management 项目融资及 信贷风险管理,Project Finance Overview项目融资简介 Credit Risks in Project Finance项目融资中的信贷风险 Credit Risk Management (Financial Risks)信贷风险管理 (财务风险) Cash Flow Analysis现金流分析 I (NPV and IRR净现值和内部收益率) Cash Flow Analysis现金流分析 II (Individual Cash Flows单个现金流) Stress Testi
2、ng/Simulation压力测试/仿真模拟 Credit Risk Management (Political Risks)信贷风险管理 (政治风险),Table of Contents目录,Project Finance Overview 项目融资概况,Basels Definition of PF (in short) 项目融资的Basel定义,A simple cash-flow stream简单的现金流量 The value of PF relies on a simple cash-flow stream generated by a single project and the
3、collateral value of the project assets: the source of the cash-flow may be a single buyer or consumers.项目融资的价值在于简单的现金流量产生于单一的项目,以及项目资产的抵押价值:现金流的来源可能是一个买家或者客户。 Non- or limited-recourse没有资源或资源有限 An independent SPE is created to hold the project assets and to integrate all legal contracts in an effecti
4、ve and efficient manner for funding, building and operating a single purpose project. SPE is owned by one or a few sponsors and it is highly leveraged.一个独立的项目公司建立的目的就是为了持有项目资产,集中所有法律合同进行有效和有效率的融资,建立和经营一个单一目的的项目。项目公司是被一个或者一些发起人拥有的,而且他的负债对资产比率很高。 Risk allocation风险配置 PF is used for large, complex, and
5、expensive industrial facilities such as natural resources and infrastructure sectors, which involve a series of legal contracts in a vertical chain from input supplier to output purchaser.项目融资被用于大型,复杂及昂贵的工业设备上,例如自然资源和基础建设部分,涉及到从原料提供商到产成品采购方的垂直链上的一系列法律合同,Based on: International Convergence of Capital
6、 Management and Capital Standards, BIS, 2006, para 221,222,Why PF Structure? Sponsors Motivation 为什么使用项目融资结构?发起人的动机,Risk mitigation/Debt capacity风险缓解/负债能力 By isolating the asset in a standalone project company, project finance reduces the possibility of risk contamination, the phenomenon whereby a f
7、ailing asset drags an otherwise healthy sponsoring firm into distress.发起人可以把资产放在一个独立的项目公司中,项目融资降低了风险的可能性,否则其他不良资产可能会导致整个公司都进入困境。 The sponsor can preserve corporate debt capacity.发起人可以保障公司的借债能力 To create asset specific governance structure可以建立明确的资产管理结构 Separate legal incorporation, which assumes a sp
8、ecific project and few growth options, reduces both the cost of monitoring managerial actions and assessing performance, and wasteful expenditures and sub-optimal reinvestment.单独设立法人企业,各自承担一个项目,降低了各自的监管,评价成本,节约了浪费的费用,和次优再投资。 Deterrent against strategic behavior by the third parties可以威慑第三方的战略行动 Spons
9、or can involve the critical parties for the project, including the public sector, as shareholders to prevent future conflict.发起人可以把重要的合作方,例如公共部门纳入项目中,例如作为项目的股东,这样可以防止将来的冲突 By involving international banks and multilateral agencies whose interest is solely in cash-flow maximization by the project, th
10、e sponsor may prevent harmful action by the host government.发起人可以把国际银行,国际代理纳入项目公司,他们的利益会由项目而达到最大化,这样发起人就有可能防止当地政府的有害行为,Based on: The Economic Motivations for Using Project Finance, Benjamin C. Esty, 2003,PF vs. Corporate Finance 项目融资 vs. 公司金融,Project Finance项目融资 Limited or non-recourse资源有限或者没有资源 Sim
11、ple cash-flow structure produced from one independent waste asset由单一资产产生的单一现金流结构 High-leverage at beginning, but getting lower toward the end of the debt repayment初期较高的财务杠杆, 但在债务偿付之后逐降低 Relatively a few layers of debt and equity structure (simple ownership)相对较少的债务和权益结构(单一所有权) Applied to projects att
12、aining a scale of economy适用于达到规模经济的项目,Corporate Finance公司金融 Full recourse充足资源 Complicated cash-flow structure produced from a set of various, replaceable profit making projects由一系列可替代的盈利项目产生的复杂的现金流结构 Leverage depends on a companys target capital structure财务杠杆取决于公司的目标资本结构 Various layers of debt and e
13、quity structure (complicated ownership)较多层次的债券和权益结构(复杂的所有权) Applied to all profit making business types适用于所有盈利企业类型,Typical Structure of Conventional PF 典型的传统项目融资结构,Off-take purchaser 包销商,Input supplier 投入供应商,Operator 运营商,Project company 项目公司 (SPE),Contractors 承包商,Lenders 借款人,Sponsors 发起人,Central/loc
14、al Government 中央/地方政府,Concession Authority 特许权许可,Insurers 保险公司,Shareholders Agreement 股东协议,Equity所有者权益,Loan Agreement借款合同,Debt借款,Construction Agreement 建造合同,License/permit专利权/许可权,Concession Agreement特许权合同,Insurance保险,Off-take agreement 包销协议,Supply agreement 供应合同,Operation/maintenance Agreement 运营/维护
15、合同,Power/utility电力/动力,Multilateral/bilateral agencies 多方/双方代理,Equipment suppliers 设备供应商,2. Credit Risks in Project Finance 项目融资中的信贷风险,Fire Flooding Earthquake Volcano Disease,Strike Insurrection Terrorism War,Force Majeure Events,Political Risks,Corruption Legal/regulatory -irregularities License/Pe
16、rmit Concession Taxes Equity-holding Currency -inconvertibility Expatriation Preemption/priority Breach of contract Foreign worker limitation Law enforcement,Construction Facility site Equipment Technology Off-take Input Operation Utility Collateral Mineral reserves Reporting accuracy,Contractual Ri
17、sks,Commercial Risks,Creeping Expropriation,Outright Expropriation,Natural Disaster,Expropriation Confiscation Nationalization,War & Civil Disturbances,Financial Risks,Market Risks,Civil Movements,Environment Human rights CSR Religion Nationalism Globalization,Interest rate Exchange rate Inflation r
18、ate Labor cost Product market Input market Salvage cost,Project Finance Credit Risks Overview,火灾 水灾 地震 火山 疾病,罢工 暴动 恐怖活动 战争,不可抗力,政治风险,腐败 法律/法规 -不合法 专利权/许可权 特许权 税赋 持股经营 货币-不可转换 派遣 优先购买权/优先权 合同违约 外籍员工限制 执法,建造 场地 设备 技术 生产包销协议 投入 运营 动力 抵押 矿产储量 报告的正确性,合同风险,商业风险,间接征用,征用,自然灾害,征用 没收 国有化,战争及 民间干扰,金融风险,市场风险,利率
19、 汇率 通货膨胀率 人工成本 产品市场 产出市场 回收成本,项目融资的信贷风险-概况,民间运动,环境 人权 企业社会责任 宗教 民族主义 全球化,3. Credit Risk Management信贷风险管理 (Financial Risks金融风险),3.1 Cash Flow Analysis I 现金流分析I (NPV and IRR) (净现值法及内部收益率),(1 + r ),(1 + r ),Net Present Value净现值 (NPV) I,Year年,Free cash flow,Cash out flow 付出现金流,Financial Agreement (Closi
20、ng)融资合同,Sank Costs 沉没 成本,t = 0,t = 1,t = 2,t = 5,t = 10,t = 20,t = 30,t = 40,Present Value现值,Present value of cash out flow at t=2 第2年付出现金的现值,Present value of cash in flow at t=10 第10年收到现金的现值,PV =,- CF2,2,PV =,CF10,10,Example例,Sank cost does not affect cash flow analysis because it is an existing fa
21、ct regardless of the investment decision (it is not incremental costs). 沉没成本不影响现金流分析, 无论投资决策是否变化,它都 不会变动(它不是增量成本),Salvage Value残值,(1 + r),CF10,(1 + r ),(1 + r ),- CF2,= - CF0 + + + + + +,- CF1,(1 + r ),(1 + r),(1 + r),CF42,(1 + r ),Net Present Value净现值 (NPV) II,1,2,10,= ,42,t = 0,CFt,t,Present value
22、 of cash out flow at t=2 第2年现金支出的现值,Present value of cash in flow at t=10 第10年现金流入的现值,PV2 =,- CF2,2,PV10 =,CF10,10,PV0 = - CF0,Present value of cash out flow at t=0 0年支出现金的现值,Negative value because they are cash out flow 负数,因为他们是现金流出,Positive value because they are cash in flow 正数,因为他们是现金流入,Net of a
23、ll present value of cash out flow and all present value of cash in flow is: 所有现金流入的现值减去所有现金流出的现值,NPV = PV0 + PV1 + PV2 + PV3 + + PV42,42,As long as this value is positive, the project will produce more cash than necessary to repay debt and dividend. 只要净现值是正数,这个项目带来的现金收入就能超过偿 还的借款和股利所需要的现金,Net Presen
24、t Value 净现值(NPV) III,Implication 含义 Positive NPV净现值为正数: the project will generate more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders, the excess cash solely to the projects shareholders. 该项目产生的现金将超过用于偿还银行债务及向股东支付股利的现金,超过部分的现金仅仅属于该项目的股东。 Zero NPV净现值为零: the
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