日本泡沫经济破灭的警示宏观经济失衡(The warning of Japan's bubble economy burst macroeconomic imbalances).doc
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1、日本泡沫经济破灭的警示宏观经济失衡(The warning of Japans bubble economy burst macroeconomic imbalances)China authoritative Economic Papers LibraryThe warning of Japans bubble economy burst: macroeconomic imbalancesLiu Changkun 2008-07-25Abstract: in 1980s, the Japanese bubble economy has the unique macroscopic and m
2、icroscopic and structural factors, Chinese current macroeconomic environment and Japan in the middle of the 80s bubble economy, there are some similarities, but differences. It is very important to improve the vigilance and understanding of the bubble economy and adopt appropriate macro-economic pol
3、icies to deal with the economic development at different stages. The Japanese case with foam in macroeconomics may cause economic collapse in principle, but also has profound connotation, it involves how to maintain a long-term stable growth of a country economic catch-up growth after the end of the
4、 stage, if not the transition will fall into the bubble economy can not extricate themselves.Key words: Japans economy, bubble economy, macroeconomic imbalancesIn 1980s, Japans bubble economy has the unique macroscopic and microscopic and structural factors, China current macroeconomic environment a
5、nd Japan in the middle of the 80s bubble economy, there are some similarities, but differences. It is very important to improve the vigilance and understanding of the bubble economy and adopt appropriate macro-economic policies to deal with the economic development at different stages.The pursuit of
6、 macroeconomic stability is the focus of economic policy in each country. However, if traditional macroeconomic theory is used to look at economic fluctuations, there will be great deviations. Because in the interest rates, prices and domestic real economy is stable, there will be a sudden economic
7、collapse. In the case of Japan, Japan in the last century the bubble economy before a few years, from the traditional macroeconomic indicators, economic operation is normal, inflation and unemployment rates are about 2% of the low level of long-term interest rates in 3%, investment, consumption and
8、import and export are in normal range however, the real estate and stock market as the representative of the asset market prices rose sharply in early 90s, the Japanese economy into a long-term recession.The fundamental reason of Japans bubble economy is that used to be attached to the real economy
9、of the financial market has changed its subordinate position, into the economic operation of the protagonist, more and more companies and individuals in the operation of assets in the financial market also turned to seek benefits. With the rapid growth of global wealth, the material production field
10、 can not digest so much surplus funds, these funds have created a variety of financial transactions market, these markets have natural high liquidity, high volatility. Moreover, in the personal assets holding, the proportion of the financial assets increases continuously, and the wealth effect also
11、expands correspondingly. Finally, the financial market becomes the important factor of macroeconomic instability.The Japanese case with foam in macroeconomics may cause economic collapse in principle, but also has profound connotation, it involves how to maintain a long-term stable growth of a count
12、ry economic catch-up growth after the end of the stage, if not the transition will fall into the bubble economy can not extricate themselves.First, macroeconomic imbalances are the main reason for Japans bubble economyAfter the Second World War, Japan was subjected to great social turbulence and vio
13、lent institutional change. However, in this turmoil has formed the economic growth mechanism of catching up, the last century in Japan in 60s to achieve the above 10% annual growth rate of There was no parallel in history., 80s quickly entered the ranks of developed countries. However, Japan entered
14、 the bubble economy soon after entering the ranks of developed countries, and the collapse of the bubble made the Japanese economy unable to return to normal growth for a long time.Japan has bubble economy in addition to extensive government intervention lead to enterprise behavior distortion, bring
15、s the enterprise internal control and bank influence is too large, the financial liberalization surplus funds to accelerate the formation of the bubble economy of the three aspects of the reasons caused by the special structure of corporate governance, another important reason is that there is a maj
16、or mistake of macroeconomic policy. The Japanese government major mistakes in macroeconomic policies, can be analyzed from two aspects, one is the face of the 1985 Plaza Agreement after the rapid opening of the capital market, the two is to deal with the bubble economy formation and burst after adju
17、stment.(1) expansionary monetary policy and resulting in a substantial increase in liquidityAfter the Plaza Agreement, Japans economy was depressed, and the growth of GDP dropped from 4.4% in 1985 to 2.9% in 1986. In response to the economic depression, the Bank of Japan implemented expansionary mon
18、etary policy and led to a substantial increase in liquidity. In 1986, Japan cut interest rates for the 5 time, and the central bank discount rate fell from 5% to 2.5%. Helps to prevent excessive appreciation of the yen interest rates on the one hand, on the other hand can expand domestic demand by i
19、ncreasing domestic investment and consumption to promote economic growth, reduce external dependence, the appreciation of the yen to alleviate adverse impact on economic growth. In 1986, the central banks economic goals were not contradictory. Expanding domestic demand, promoting economic growth and
20、 maintaining the stability of the currency required the Bank of Japan to implement expansionary monetary policy. Therefore, the measures for reducing interest rates in 1986 were correct. For a variety of reasons, 2.5% of the central bank discount rate maintained for more than two years, until May 19
21、89 before raising interest rates again. Since the central banks basic currency is mainly backed by refinancing, a lower discount rate leads to a substantial issuance of base money.(two) the lack of efficient use of funds has created asset bubblesFrom the Bank of Japan to reduce the discount rate to
22、expand the money supply of the original, 1986 expansionary monetary policy is very correct, not only helps to relieve the excessive appreciation of the yen inhibition on exports, but also by expanding domestic demand to make up for the lack of export of the impact on the domestic economy. But due to
23、 the lack of relevant policies, expansionary monetary policy to create abundant liquidity is not efficient, low rate of investment return gradually affect the income, but lead to asset price bubble formation and eventually rupture.The increase of liquidity is directly characterized by abundant marke
24、t funds, including domestic industrial investment, stock market investment and real estate investment. The appreciation of the local currency is not conducive to exports, while Japan is a typical export-oriented economy, the proportion of the trading sector is relatively large, and it is difficult f
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